The moment of decision has come for India to choose a fighter Jet. Early this year when Prime Minister Modi visited the United States, Donald Trump touted the idea of selling F-35 fighter jets to India. India has already been submitted a proposal by the Russian state arms exporter Rosoboronexport to co-produce their 5th generation fighter jet SU-57 locally in the country. The other choice India has is the ongoing development of the 5.5th generational fighter jet Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA), the first flight of which expected in 2028. It has been a difficult choice as visible from the indecisiveness of the defence ministry. But India has to take a decision that is viable for the longer-term security of the country. The geopolitical climate has changed dramatically, with Donald Trump in power in the United States and a potential normalization of relationship between India and China after the Galwan valley skirmishes. At this juncture, surprisingly, it is rather easier for India to take an astute decision than it was two years ago.
The primary concern of the government of India, specifically the officials who have been irresolute for some time, is that shunning the American F-35 for Russia’s SU-57 would not be a wise decision as it would impact the current defence partnership between the two countries. F-35 is technologically superior but costly. Besides that, the technology of F-35 would not be able to transfer to India for co-production, which is against the interest of the government as it does not help with the Make in India policy. This impediment to technology transfer is already being faced by the existing customers of F-35, where even a minor software update for the system should follow a rigorous process as approved by the US intended to protect the cutting-edge technology. As a result, the customers have become very much dependent on the US, with no possibility of integrating the fighter jet with their own defence systems.
With regard to the SU-57, however, Russia is even willing
allow the production of the systems completely within India itself. It would be
a significant boost for the Make in India initiative. But it’s worth keeping in
mind that, in 2018, India withdrew from an SU-57 collaboration intended to
produce a completely local variant for India, citing a number of concerns
including cost and technology transfer. India has since then focused more
seriously on the development of the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA). The
current proposal from Russia on SU-57 is cost-effective, when compared to F-35,
and self-sufficient, as it is a co-production deal.
The delay in the decision might have to do with the geopolitical changes of late. Now that with China willing to normalize relations, a sudden need to acquire a 5th generation fighter jet would not be there, for the time being. Of course, the decisions are not entirely based on the relation vis-a-vis China, as the normalization is still in a premature state. But this clearing of the smog gives vacuum to consider the alternative possibilities that might help with India’s long term defence strategy.
When it comes to the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA), India faces several obstacles including budget constraints and program delays, along with requiring seeking foreign technological support anyways, the outcome being the production extended beyond the expected date of 2035. These hurdles are predictable. The potential issue with the delay is that other nations like China and the United States have already started the development of their 6th generation fighter jets, using the emerging cutting-edge technologies. With the rapid improvements in Quantum computing and Artificial intelligence, it has become difficult to keep up with the technological edge when it comes to developing a product encompassing all of these technologies rapidly being improved. This puts India in uncertainty. The dilemma is still here because if India wants to develop its 6th generation fighter jet in the future, which it certainly does, Indian scientists and manufacturers need hands-on experience working on 5th generation technologies, this is without a question. It means buying a completely new fighter jet, such as F-35, even though superior, puts India at a disadvantage in terms of innovation and technological advancement at home, as F-35 prevents technology transfer to India.
Thus, the choice India has right now is either to extensively
focus on the AMCA to finish the project within the set time using all the
resources it otherwise would have used to buy fighter jets, or go with Russia’s
SU-57 to co-develop and produce an entirely local version of the fighter jet in
India, which is very convenient as India already has the experience of
developing Russian fighter jets locally, including Su-30MKI. In either case,
India will have the expertise, at the end of the day, for its future ventures, including
the development of a 6th generation fighter jet without having to
completely rely on an external partner.
